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Joe Varner: China doesn't even have to pressure Canada to keep Liberals in line Original

2 months ago|

By Joe Varner |National Post Verified

Skip to Content Direct coercion may not be largest threat from Beijing Prime Minister Mark Carney meets with President of China Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on Friday, Jan. 16, 2026. Remarks from Conservative MP Michael Chong on his recent Taiwan visit should not have required saying. Sign In or Create an Account “Canada is an independent, sovereign country.

Joe Varner: Canada needs to pay attention to China's military purges before betting on Beijing Original

3 months ago|

By Joe Varner |National Post Verified

Skip to Content Sweeping purges in the PLA’s Rocket Force and nuclear command reveal deep instability Ottawa cannot ignore Prime Minister Mark Carney, left, meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Jan. 16. On Sunday morning, when Mark Carney declared that Canada’s historic closeness with the United States now represents “weaknesses,” he opened the door to a fundamental rethinking of Canadian foreign policy.

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If the Iran Talks Collapse, What Next?

3 months ago|

By Joe Varner |International Policy Digest Verified

The collapse of the ceasefire negotiations—and the emerging discussion of a naval blockade—marks the end of a brief diplomatic pause that had temporarily slowed the regional war. What replaces it is not yet full-scale conflict, but something more ambiguous and, in some ways, more dangerous. The situation remains highly volatile, and all three actors involved retain the capacity to move from tension to open hostilities with little warning.

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Diego Garcia Was the Warning Shot Canada Cannot Afford to Ignore

4 months ago|

By Joe Varner |Geopolitical Monitor

On Friday, March 20, Iran launched two intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBM) toward Diego Garcia, a US-UK base in the Indian Ocean over 3000 kilometers off its shore. One missile malfunctioned and the other was intercepted by a United States SM-3 system. However, the fact that no damage was done risks obscuring the more important reality - Iran has demonstrated an ability to threaten one of the most remote and strategically important military installations in the Western defense network.

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Joe Varner: Praising Beijing’s 'new world order' a costly misstep for Carney — and Canada Original

6 months ago|

By Joe Varner |National Post Verified

A photo of a smiling Prime Minister Mark Carney shaking hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen on the cover of the weekend edition of the China Daily newspaper as a reader thumbs through the pages in Beijing on Jan. 17, 2026. Prime Minister Mark Carney did not misspeak in Beijing. He chose his words carefully, and therein lies a severe problem. When a Canadian prime minister praises the idea of a “new world order” while sitting in China, he is not engaging in neutral diplomacy.

F-35, Submarines, Golden Dome: The Canadian Choices America Is Watching Closely

6 months ago|

By Joe Varner |National Security Journal Verified

Synopsis and Key Points: Washington’s intensified focus on Greenland is framed as homeland risk management driven by polar vulnerabilities that cut across Greenland and Canada’s northern approaches. -The argument treats North America as a single defensive system where missiles, bombers, submarines, and cyber operations exploit seams in Arctic warning and coverage.

Opinion: The West can’t ignore Russian advances

7 months ago|

By Joe Varner |Brandon Sun Verified

While Russian troops advance across Ukrainian fields, Moscow is assaulting Europe from within, waging a parallel war across the continent’s infrastructure, politics, and public discourse. This is not a conflict contained to the Donbas or Southern Ukraine. It is a two-front campaign designed to stretch western unity to the breaking point. Russia is not waiting for a future conflict with the West. It is already waging one.

Iran Pushing the Middle East to the Brink of War

8 months ago|

By Joe Varner |National Security Journal Verified

Key Points and Summary – Iran is driving the Middle East toward its most dangerous crisis in decades, combining nuclear opacity, proxy warfare, and maritime coercion with growing confidence it can survive—and even win—a region-wide war. -Tehran sees the U.S. as distracted, Israel constrained, and Europe preoccupied, while its networks in Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen harry opponents on multiple fronts. Iran’s Drones That Russia Is Using. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

When misogyny festers, extremism follows

8 months ago|

By Lisa MacLeod, Joe Varner |National Newswatch

When misogyny festers, extremism follows Author(s) Source Macdonald-Laurier Institute Posted Share Before many Islamist terrorists ever raised a weapon in the name of jihad, they raised a hand against a woman. One of the enduring failures of modern security and counterterrorism thinking is that we fixate on online manifestos, foreign radicalisers and ideological “dog-whistles,” yet we often ignore the bruises, the restraining orders, and the abuse happening in our own homes and communities.

Joe Varner: Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan — three fronts, one fight the West must win Original

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By Joe Varner |National Post Verified

Skip to Content Advertisement 1 If one of them falls, the message to the authoritarian world will be: the West blinks, the West buckles, and the West can be beaten Article content If Ukraine falls, Israel buckles, and Taiwan breaks, the world we know ends. Sign In or Create an Account Article content In 2025, Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan are not just fighting their own battles — they are holding the line for a world order that has kept great-power war at bay for nearly eighty years.

Joe Varner: Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan — three fronts, one fight the West must win

By Joe Varner |National Post Verified

Skip to Content Advertisement 1 If one of them falls, the message to the authoritarian world will be: the West blinks, the West buckles, and the West can be beaten Article content If Ukraine falls, Israel buckles, and Taiwan breaks, the world we know ends. Sign In or Create an Account Article content In 2025, Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan are not just fighting their own battles — they are holding the line for a world order that has kept great-power war at bay for nearly 80 years.

China’s Parade of Power - Tribune Content Agency

By Joe Varner |Tribune Content Agency

China’s latest military parade , which took place in Beijing on September 3, was never simply a commemoration of wartime sacrifice against Japan and the Axis powers. It was a carefully choreographed show of force directed at Washington, America’s Asian allies, and India, as well as Chinese audiences at home and abroad.

China’s Parade of Power

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By Joe Varner |buff.ly

This week’s military procession was a form of “deterrence theater” designed to demonstrate that Beijing has the tools to punish intervention and survive escalation. Subscribe for ads-free reading China’s latest military parade , which took place in Beijing on September 3, was never simply a commemoration of wartime sacrifice against Japan and the Axis powers.

China’s Parade of Power

By Joe Varner |The Diplomat Magazine Verified

China’s ‘Unforced Error’ in the South China Sea Could Spark a War

Joe Varner National Security Journal August 28, 2025 Beijing is now escalating its aggression with unsafe aerial intercepts and is expected to swarm the disputed shoal with its naval and militia forces. Read Full Article » Show comments Hide Comments Related Articles

8/29/25 National Security News and Commentary

By Jane Lytvynenko Verified, Thomas Grove Verified, Dov Lieber Verified, Joe Varner |Constant Contact

Quotes of the Day: "Wars are not paid for in wartime, the bill comes later." – Benjamin Franklin "Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. In fact, it's the only thing that ever has." – Margaret Mead "As in many wars, Japan’s unstated goals were more important than its stated goals.

A Second Munich in Alaska?

By Joe Varner |Times-Leader Verified

Eighty-seven years after Neville Chamberlain’s fateful handshake with Adolf Hitler, the West stands on the brink of another Munich—only this time, the map on the table is Ukraine. In 1938, Great Britain and France convened in Munich with Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini—without Czechoslovakia or its Soviet ally—to negotiate the fate of the Sudetenland. The result was a capitulation dressed as diplomacy.

A Second Munich in Alaska?

By Joe Varner |The Ohio Press Network Verified

Israel’s new war: seven fronts, one existential challenge

By Joe Varner |National Newswatch

In 2025, Israel is not just fighting a war in Gaza. It is managing a regional siege—coordinated across seven active fronts—engineered to isolate, exhaust, and ultimately erase the Jewish state. While Western governments fixate on Gaza and decry a humanitarian catastrophe—some even invoking the charge of genocide—they remain conspicuously silent about the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre of Israeli civilians by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Joe Varner: The only 'win' Israel should take is an Iran without nuclear weapons

By Joe Varner |National Post Verified

The preemptive destruction of Iran's nuclear program will bring the ayatollah to his senses, laying the foundation for regime change in Tehran • • You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account. Article content Israel had failed to deter Iran’s nuclear weapons program, and the west had failed in their promise to stop it.

NATO Needs To Heed the Trends of the Ukraine War

The general trends of the Russia-Ukraine War are there for all to see and NATO needs to take heed of those trends to reequip Western militaries for the future battlefield. Two and a half years in the Ukraine War has provided some valuable trends on what the future war environment will look like between great and middle powers. We have seen the importance of gaining air superiority over the battlefield, if even in short bursts of time in Ukraine.

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Against NATO

Britain's Defence Secretary Grant Shapps arrives in Downing Street for a cabinet meeting in London, on March 6, 2024. Britain says a plane carrying Defense Secretary Grant Shapps had its satellite signal jammed as it flew near Russian territory.

The Weekly Wrap: The Assembly of First Nations is not worth the Conservatives’ time

By Sean Speer, Joe Varner |The Hub Canada

Commentary 13 July 2024 Federal Conservative leader Pierre Polievre speaks to the Assembly of First Nations as National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak looks on, July 11, 2024 in Montreal. Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press. In The Weekly Wrap Sean Speer, our editor-at-large, analyses for Hub subscribers the big stories shaping politics, policy, and the economy in the week that was. The AFN is just a lobby, nothing more and nothing less Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre broke a promise this week.

Joe Varner: Canada must start preparing for another Trump presidency

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By Joe Varner, Livio Di Matteo |The Hub Canada

Commentary 12 July 2024 U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau talk prior to a NATO meeting in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, Dec. 4, 2019. Frank Augstein/AP Photo. President Joe Biden’s recent debate performance should leave Canadians with no illusions: another Donald Trump presidency is not only an increasingly conceivable outcome, at this point it may even be likely.

Malcolm Jolley: Domaine Le Clos Jordanne-an old winery with a new name and a bright future

By Malcolm Jolley, Joe Varner |The Hub Canada

Commentary 14 June 2024 Thomas Bachelder and Kerri Crawford at the new Domaine Le Clos Jordanne winery. Credit: Malcolm Jolley. On the first Monday morning of June, the master winemaker Thomas Bachelder was making what sounded like a germane point about French grammar and the new name of an old winery that he has been associated with for its 20-year history.

Joe Varner: Canada’s selfish disregard of defence is the Achilles heel of NATO’s northern security

By Joe Varner, David Polansky |The Hub Canada

In the face of global adversaries like Russia and China bent on hegemony and conquest, Canada’s hands-off approach to defence and security is no longer tenable. While the country itself has seemingly not woken up to this realization, its NATO and Western allies certainly have. Canada‘s recent defence policy update, entitled “Our North Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence” situated Canada’s defence strategy on a need to protect the Arctic and NATO’s northern flank.

Prosecuting Israel for defending itself would mean the end of the liberal international world order

This week’s absurd announcement that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has requested the issuing of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant is a powerful sign of what many of us have known for some time: the United Nations architecture is falling apart.

Time To Deploy Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons at Sea

The U.S. needs to break out of its post-Cold War posture and move to a warfighting doctrine with forward deployed theatre level or tactical nuclear weapons on warships to deter China and others. The last decade has seen China threaten its Indo-Pacific neighbors with violence and claims on their territory including U.S. allies South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Many expect China to try and seize Taiwan by force of arms by 2027.

Time To Deploy Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons at Sea

The U.S. needs to break out of its post-Cold War posture and move to a warfighting doctrine with forward deployed theatre level or tactical nuclear weapons on warships to deter China and others.

A larger geopolitical battle is already underway in the Middle East

3 years ago|

Every day there is speculation that the current Israel-Hamas War will widen into a regional war. That is a legitimate concern, but in real terms, the war was never actually narrow. It is the continuation of an already-widened conflict. Only in the West do we look at war in black-and-white terms, whereas Russia and China look at it as varying shades of black, white, and grey.

The biggest threat to Ukraine now is a distracted West

The Russian invasion of Ukraine entered a new phase last month, partly due to the heroic efforts of the Ukrainian army and partly due to continued support from the West. Although the success has been impressive, it leaves two concerns for Ukrainians going forward: an exhausted army and a distracted West.

Situation Report 11 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place Ukrainian military has expanded on the success of its counteroffensive around northeastern Kharkiv. Russia has at least 19 Battalion Tactic Groups (BTGs) in the Belgorod area that may be used to counterattack toward Kharkiv. Russia’s offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line has generally stalled, with limited successes in Popasna.

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

Situation Report 8 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

On the grand strategic level, Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes Russia will keep all options on the table to achieve its military objectives in Ukraine, including nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other Cabinet Members made a surprise visit to Kyiv as Russia readies for the annual Victory Day parade. There is a fear that Russia will formally declare war and announce full mobilization.

Situation Report 7 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. Russian aviation strikes were carried out against the towns of Khotin and Myropillia on May 7th near Sumy Oblast. The Ukrainian counteroffensive along a broad arc north and east of Kharkiv city took further terrain and will likely push Russian forces out of tube artillery range of the city in the coming days.

Situation Report 6 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

Russia’s annual May 9th Victory Parade will include a flight by the Il-80 “doomsday” plane, which would carry Russia’s senior leadership in the event of a nuclear war as a further threatening signal to the West on nuclear war. On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Situation Report 5 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

Strategically, it has emerged in reports that the US intelligence community has been providing real time intelligence to Ukrainian forces that has allowed Ukraine to kill 12 Russian General Officers and the cruiser Moskva. Today was another day of some widespread air and missile strikes by Russian forces with reports of impacts in the Kyiv region in the north, Odesa in the south and numerous central, east and southeastern regions including near Kramatorsk.

Situation Report 3 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

At the strategic level, Rumours are reportedly swirling in Moscow that a number of former General Officers and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and end the war in Ukraine. According to UK intelligence Russia’s military has been significantly weakened by invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing invasion of Ukraine will have a lasting impact on the Russian forces.

Situation Report 2 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

On the ground, the US believes that the Russian military’s Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, who visited Ukraine’s Donbas region may have been wounded during fighting. The April 30th Ukrainian artillery strike on the Russian command post in Izyum may be continuing to disrupt Russian efforts on the Izyum axis and may have injured Gerasimov and key staff.

Situation Report 4 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

At the grand Strategic level, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has confirmed Russia will announce general mobilization on May 9th. Ukraine has said it is ready if Belarus joins Russia’s war. Belarus said that it started large-scale drills on May 4th to test its combat readiness, while local residents reported spotting columns of military vehicles moving in the direction of Ukraine and Lithuania.

Situation Report 25 - April 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

Russia’s defence ministry warned its high-precision missiles destroyed six facilities powering railways used to deliver foreign weapons to Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas. Russian missile strikes hit critical transportation infrastructure in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Zhytomyr oblasts. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Western weapons sent to Ukraine “will be a legitimate target” for Russia’s military.

Situation Report 26 - April 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

At the grand strategic political and diplomatic level, at the invitation of the US, 40 countries are meeting at a security summit in Germany to discuss further arms supplies to Ukraine and the country’s longer-term security once the war is over. Coming out of the summit, in a major policy turn, Germany will reportedly authorize tank and armoured vehicle deliveries to Ukraine. The US and Britain have reportedly provided Sweden with security guarantees during its NATO application process.

Situation Report 29 - April 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

At the grand strategic level, the British Ministry of Defense has reportedly seen indications that Russian President Putin is preparing a Statement for May 9th during the Victory Parade in Moscow, in which it is expected that a General Mobilization and a Declaration of War against Ukraine will be declared. On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

Situation Report 28 - April 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

At the grand strategic level, Russia on Thursday warned NATO that there would be a tough military response to any further attack on Russian territory, accusing the US and its allies of undermining European security by openly inciting Ukraine to assault Russia. NATO has warned it’s ready to back Kyiv for years in war against Russia.

Situation Report 30 - April 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

On the grande strategic level, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has told Chinese state media that in peace talks with Ukraine, Russia has called for sanctions to be lifted.

Situation Report 1 - May 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

Russia carried out missile attacks across southern and eastern Ukraine. Governor of Kursk Oblast says that the collapse of a railway bridge in the region reported earlier today was a work of sabotage. On the ground, Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. Russia is also continuing to build up troops in the northeast, intended to partially blockade the heavily hit city of Kharkiv.

Situation Report 27 - April 2022

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

On the grand strategic level the Kremlin has threatened to strike British military targets in retaliation for the UK’s support of Ukraine. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova suggested that Moscow could target territory of Nato countries which have been supplying arms to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on April 27th that Russia has all “instruments” for “immediate strikes” on the countries that would decide to intervene in the war.

Joe Varner: Ukraine fights on—The state of the Russia-Ukraine war two months in - The Hub

Right now in Europe a legendary war is being fought between a “David and a Goliath” in Ukraine and Russia. David, against many expectations, is doing surprisingly well on the battlefield. Goliath? Not so well. In war, you succeed and win when you obtain your strategic objectives or your war aims. In this case, Russia’s war aim or key strategic objective was to take over the entirety of Ukraine and replace its government with one more friendly, a puppet if you will.

Situation Report 21

By Joe Varner |Diplomat and International Canada Verified

US intelligence reportedly believes that while casualties have been high and Putin’s ambitions have narrowed in Ukraine with time he believes the West’s efforts to punish him and contain Russia’s power will crack over time. Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya said in a Tweet on April 20 that Russia rejected the “Easter humanitarian break” requested the day before by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.